Of the 14 main presidential polls taken prior to now month, President Biden leads in 9 of them, which means that it’s inaccurate to recommend that Trump is main the 2024 election.
Simon Rosenberg tweeted:
There are actually 14 current polls with Biden tied/main. 9 have Biden leads:
47-45 NYT/Siena (LVs)
49-48 Monmouth
49-48 NPR/Marist
42-41 & 44-42 YouGov/Economist
39-37 YouGov
40-36 & 37-35 Leger
Reuters = Biden +4 in battlegrounds— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) December 20, 2023
Necessary Disclaimer: Particular numbers are meaningless this far out from an election. Take note of the final shifts, not the horserace numbers that the media likes to give attention to.
Polls individually are fuzzy and never very reliable at this stage, however the one factor that may be gleaned from dozens of polls is the final route that an election is shifting in, even at this very early stage.
There isn’t any proof {that a} majority of voters need Trump again within the White Home.
The massive driver of voter discontent has seemed to be inflation and the financial system. Over the previous month, Biden has gotten excellent news throughout the board on these fronts. Inflation is coming down. Fuel costs have been dropping. People are beginning to really feel optimistic in regards to the financial system.
One thing else occurred over the previous month that additionally deserves consideration. Donald Trump got here out of hiding and began doing extra nationwide media. As voters are getting a dose of Trump’s racism, fascism, and extremism that he has turned as much as 11 for 2024, they look like remembering why they tossed the man out on his ear within the first place.
All presidential elections for greater than a technology have been shut. It doesn’t matter what occurs with Trump’s legal instances, voters ought to put together for a detailed election.
Nonetheless, the concepts that Biden is in large hassle, or Trump is main are outdated media frames. Trump is already dropping momentum, as there’s something occurring with the voters that must be carefully monitored over the approaching months.
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